• Fri. Jun 2nd, 2023

Bets with Seb: Aug. 15, 2022

BySebastian Moore

Aug 15, 2022
Luis Castillo throws a pitch

Photo courtesy of Mary Altaffer | AP Photo

The MLB has a stacked 14-game slate set for Monday, kicking off with a matinee matchup in the first game of a doubleheader between the visiting Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians at 3:10 p.m. ET. The evening will conclude with the series opener between the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Francisco Giants at 9:45 pm. ET

Aug. 12 Overall Results: 4-10 / Parlay Result: 2-1-0

Note: Odds via DraftKings.


The Plays

Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels – Mariners ML (+100), Game Total Under 6.5 (-105). F5 Game Total Under 3 (+105)

This might be the best play of the night featuring the best pitching matchup on the slate. The Mariners are sending Luis Castillo to battle the two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani in an AL West matchup. The Angeles are only a favorite because Ohtani is on the mound, but the Mariners are a better team in every other aspect of the game that these plays are no brainers. The Angels rank 27th in the league in batting average (.227) and 25th in runs scored (3.9). Ohtani will keep his team in the game against Seattle which is 25th (.231) and 23rd (4.0) in batting average and runs scored per game, respectively. This is destined to be a low-scoring game, but look for the Mariners to squeak out the win.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds – Phillies -1.5 (-110), Game Total Over 9.5 (+100)

Get your popcorn ready because there will be fireworks in this game. The Phillies, who rank seventh in runs per game (4.6), go up against the lefty Mike Minor at Great American Ball Park. The venue averages 10.3 runs per game and boasts an over/under record of 30-26-2. The Reds allow a bunch of runs to score too. They rank 29th in team ERA (5.04) and have the 25th worst opposing batting average at a .255 mark. Minor is also 1-9 on the year with a 6.24 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 62 innings pitched. Look for the Phillies to score a bunch of runs to cover the spread. I think the Reds can scratch a couple of runs across to help the over cover, but look for a high-scoring game in the Phillies favor.

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins – Game Total Under 6.5 (-105), F5 Under 3 (+105)

Happy Sandy Alcantara Day to those who celebrate. The most dominant pitcher in baseball goes up against Juan Soto, Manny Machado and the rest of the Padres squad. San Diego is sending their hometown ace Joe Musgrove to toe the slab against the NL Cy Young frontrunner. This is another great pitchers duel that is likely to ensure the under cashes. The Padres and Marlins are playing at LoanDepot Park in Miami which owns a 25-25-3 over/under record and averages 7.8 runs per game. 

Alcantara has a 2.01 ERA while that number drops to 1.80 in 12 home starts spanning 90 innings. Musgrove hasn’t been that good, but he’s a top-tier pitcher. He hasn’t been as good in his last seven, posting a 4.50 ERA in 42 innings, but Musgrove is going up against an offense that ranks 24th in batting average (.234), 27th in runs scored per game (3.7), and 21st in home runs per game (0.9). If you don’t trust the bullpens of either team, which I don’t, I would recommend taking the F5 under because the game could explode with runs after these two depart the hill.


The Props

Shohei Ohtani – Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-185)

Ohtani is a crazy good strikeout pitcher, posting 157 punchouts in just 111 innings pitched so far. He has gone over this number in seven of his last eight outings, including a stretch of six consecutive double-digit totals. Seattle strikes out at a 8.52 mark per nine innings so watch Ohtani register at least seven Ks.

Luis Castillo – Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+115)

Castillo has been a solid acquisition for Seattle. He faced the New York Yankees in both of his starts since being traded and registered 15 total strikeouts in those outings. Now, he gets an easier matchup in the Los Angeles Angels, a team that ranks dead last with a 9.59 strikeouts per nine mark. Not to mention, Castillo has cashed the over in five of his last seven appearances. 


The Parlay

Phillies, -1.5 (-115)

Phillies/Marlins, F5 Under 3 (+105)

Dodgers, -1.5 (-110)