Photo courtesy of Gregory Bull | AP Photo
We have a 14-game slate on today’s MLB agenda, starting with the Atlanta Braves traveling to Miami to take on the Marlins at 6:40 p.m. ET. The evening ends with a series-opener between the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Francisco Giants at 10:15 p.m. ET.
Aug. 11 Overall Results: 8-7-1 / Parlay Result: 2-0-1
Note: Odds via DraftKings.
The Plays
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox – Game Total Over 9.5 (-110), Yankees Moneyline (-130)
Why: The rivalry continues at Boston when the Yankees trot out RHP Domingo German (5.09 ERA, 17.2 IP) to battle Red Sox RHP Nathan Eovaldi (4.23 ERA, 93.2 IP).
The Red Sox picked up a win against the Orioles yesterday, but they have lost 10 of their last 11 games against AL East opponents following a victory, so the trend starts to point toward the Yankees. New York hasn’t been stellar lately, losing four of its last six games, but I can see the Yankees beat the last place Red Sox with ease.
As for the game total, the rivalry matches are historically high-scoring games. The over has cashed in each of their last five games and better yet, they will be playing at Fenway Park, as teams are scoring at a 9.9 run average per game.
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox – Game Total Under 8.5 (-115), Tigers Moneyline (+185)
Why: Send the White Sox to the moon. They are one of the most unreliable teams in baseball and my point was proven when the lowly Kansas City Royals defeated Dylan Cease and the White Sox 5-3. Unbelievable, but that’s baseball.
With that said, the one thing you can rely on is the under to hit. The Tigers have gone under the game total in their last eight road games and they will be tasked with going up against Michael Kopech (3.38 ERA, 98.2 IP). Meanwhile, the White Sox are 22nd with an over/under record of 50-56-6 while the under has cashed in three of the last five games with the Tigers.
The Tigers have no business winning this game, but they can get lucky and this smells like a situation where they win. Chicago is 2-4 and Detroit is 1-5 in their last six, so something has to give between these two bad teams. The White Sox do hit lefties, such as Tigers starter Daniel Norris (6.90 ERA, 30 IP), but I just can’t put anything on a mid team like Chicago to win a ballgame.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kansas City Royals – Game Total Under 9 (-110), Dodgers -1.5 (-150)
Why: The hottest team in baseball will be taking on the Kansas City Royals and I don’t need to lecture you on why I am taking the Dodgers at this point. They are the second-most profitable team on the run line (69-41) behind the Baltimore Orioles and they will be entering this matchup riding a 10-game win streak. A combination between the Dodgers being 27th in the league with a 43-56-11 over/under record and playing at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City makes this game scream the under. The Royals won’t contribute much to the game total with RHP Tony Gonsolin on the mound, but I don’t think the Dodgers will put up a nine spot themselves.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets – Game Total Over 7 (-110), Mets F5 -0.5 (-125)
Why: Even with RHP Max Scherzer on the bump, this game total feels too low to me. Citi Field already owns a 31-22-3 over/under record this season with 8.4 runs per game while both ball clubs are in the top 10 in average runs scored this season. The over has also cashed in the last three matchup between these two teams.
I know Scherzer is terrific, posting a 1.37 ERA in his last seven starts, but he has given up eight earned runs over 17 innings while allowing 20 hits (four home runs) against the Phillies in three games this season. I do trust the Mets offense to produce against LHP Ranger Suárez in the first five innings.
The Props
San Francisco Giants RHP Carlos Rodon – Over 7.5 Strikeouts
Why: Rodon is an elite strikeout pitcher, K-ing 161 batters in just 128.1 innings. However, he has only hit the over in three of his last seven starts. Rodon has a great opportunity to make it an even 4-4 against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 28th in the league with a 9.25 strikeout per nine rate.
San Diego Padres Juan Soto – Over 0.5 Home Runs (+340)
I’m willing to lay a wager on the recently traded Soto to blast a home run at the ballpark he called home up until a little while ago. Soto will go up against RHP Cory Abbott, who is coming off a forgetful outing against the Pirates where he allowed seven runs in 3.2 innings on nine hits (four home runs) and five walks. If Soto doesn’t walk in every appearance, he’ll probably go yard.
The Parlay – 1 Unit at +393
San Diego Padres Moneyline (-230)
Dodgers/Royals – Game Total Under 9 (-110)
Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-125)
