Photo courtesy of Craig Lassig | AP Photo
MLB has a light eight-game slate today, starting with the Miami Marlins at the Philadelphia Phillies for a series finale at 1:05 p.m. ET. The night cap features the Field of Dreams game between the Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds at 7:15 p.m. ET (wow, what a thrilling matchup).
The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays game was postponed, otherwise we would have finished 7-4. On another note, the home run prop is sizzling right now. Lets keep it going and win some more bets on this light slate.
Aug. 10 Results: 3-4-4
Note: Odds via DraftKings.
The Plays
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies – Miami F5 +0.5 (-115), Phillies FG Moneyline (-165)
Why: I am torn between this one for some odd reason. The Phillies are on a heater right now but the Marlins are sending RHP Edward Cabrera (2.61 ERA, 20.2 IP) to square off against RHP Kyle Gibson (4.36 ERA, 115.2 IP).
Cabrera has made four starts this year and he’s pitched as advertised aside from one five-run performance against the Houston Astros. Meanwhile, his counterpart owns a 4.97 ERA in his past seven starts but is coming off an eight-inning, two-hit, one-run performance against the Washington Nationals. I don’t trust the Miami offense to keep pace with the Phillies for nine innings, but I have faith in Cabrera keeping it close through the first five.
Chicago White Sox – F5 -0.5 (-130), Game Total – Under 8 (-115), *FG -1.5 (-110)
Why: Happy Dylan Cease Day to those who celebrate. The Chicago White Sox are nothing spectacular, but they are at least better than the Kansas City Royals (the Royals crushed the White Sox 8-3 in yesterday’s game). But the past is the past, and we should focus on the second coming of Jacob deGrom taking the mound. Yes, Cease is really that good.
Cease is 12-4 on the year and owns a 1.98 ERA in 122.2 innings with 166 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP. He has made 22 starts this season and allowed two or more runs in four of them with the last multi-run outing dating back to May 24. Did I mention he is nearly as good (if not better after last night’s “rough” outing) as Justin Verlander in his last seven? Cease is 6-1 with a 0.86 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with 45 strikeouts in 41.2 innings.
By the way, Royals RHP Zack Greinke (3-7) has a 4.58 ERA in 92.1 IP. He does own a 2.23 ERA at a pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium but I think the White Sox can squeak a run across while Cease does his thing.
NOTE: If you want to play the odds take the White Sox run line but beware: Chicago is 28th in the league on the run line (49-62) while missing the run line against Kansas City in three of its last five matchups. In my opinion, the run line odds should be positive for the White Sox at this point, a -110 isn’t too appetizing.
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110), Game Total Under 8 (-120), Diamondbacks F5 -0.5 (-135)
Why: Even a broken clock is right twice a day. In this case, RHP Merrill Kelly is telling us its the right time to bet on the Diamondbacks. Kelly has a 2.86 ERA in 22 starts (132.1 IP) while looking really sharp in his last seven, posting a 1.49 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with 38 strikeouts in 48.1 innings. Kelly has also gone seven or more innings in four of his last five starts while allowing two runs or less in all five. Pirates RHP JT Brubaker isn’t much of a threat against Arizona as he enters with a 4.49 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with 111 strikeouts in 108.1 innings. He hasn’t found any success in his lone start against the Diamondbacks earlier this year, allowing six runs (five earned) on eight hits (three home runs) over four innings.
Sprinkle a few wagers on the Diamondbacks and you could see a nice return at the end of the day.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds – Game Total Over 9 (-105)
Why: Beware the juiced balls will most likely be used in this game. One game between two awful teams on national TV (excellent strategy MLB, I truly applaud you) can only mean the game total will hit. Manfred probably personally pissed on each and every ball used in that game. I don’t want to deep dive too much into this, just take the over and call it a day.
The Props
Detroit Tigers RHP Garrett Hill – Under 2.5 strikeouts (+125)
Why: This is a tiny K prop but it might pay off big. Hill isn’t a strikeout pitcher, recording just 17 in 31.2 innings of work. The Cleveland Guardians are rarely strikeout prone, doing so at a MLB-best 6.98 per nine inning mark.
Kelly – Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Why: This is a great matchup for Kelly who has hit the over in three of his last seven appearances. To see how well Kelly has been doing lately, look at the Diamondbacks play. The Pirates on the other hand are 28th in the league in strikeouts per nine as a team, K-ing at a 9.23 clip.
Cease – Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+105), Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-110), To Record a Win – Yes (+100)
Why: You can pretty much bet the farm on Cease tomorrow and walk away with a decent profit. The game lines on the White Sox is never a safe play, but betting on Cease against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium is a sure bet.
The Parlay – 1 Unit at +278
Houston Astros – Moneyline (-305)
White Sox/Kansas City Royals – Under 8 (-115)
Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-190)
