• Tue. Mar 28th, 2023

Bets with Seb: Aug. 10, 2022

BySebastian Moore

Aug 10, 2022
Sandy Alcantara throwing a pitch

Photo courtesy of Mary Altaffer | AP Photo

MLB has a full 15-game slate today, starting with the Cincinnati Reds taking on the New York Mets in a series finale at 1:10 p.m. ET. The nightcap features the series finale between the Minnesota Twins and the Los Angeles Dodgers at 10:10 p.m. ET. Yes, it is a full day of baseball and we are all here for it.

Aug. 8 Results: 4-1

Note: Odds via DraftKings.

The Plays

Milwaukee Brewers, F5 -0.5 (-110), Game Total – Over 7.5 (+100)

Why: The Brewers are sending RHP Brandon Woodruff against Rays LHP Jeffrey Springs. Springs has been a nice surprise this season, posting a 2.50 ERA with 83 strikeouts in 79.1 innings. However, he is carrying a 3.60 ERA over his last 35 innings with a 1.29 WHIP. Meanwhile, his counterpart Woodruff has posted a 4-0 record, 2.18 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over his last seven starts spanning 41.1 innings.

The Brewers bullpen has been a mess since trading LHP Josh Hader to the San Diego Padres, so I am talking them out of the equation entirely. On the other end of the diamond, I don’t trust the Rays offense in the slightest, as they own a .236 batting average and .684 OPS against righties.

Despite weak offenses going head to head, Woodruff and Springs can each give up runs, and so can the bullpens. I think a 7.5 under mark is a bit too low, especially considering an average of 8.8 runs are scored at American Family Field in Milwaukee, as the over/under record is 26-21-3 this year.


Washington Nationals. Moneyline (+150), F5 Moneyline (TBD)

Why: These are two terrible teams going head to head with each other in the Windy City. I like Nationals RHP Josiah Gray, especially on the road, despite his recent struggles. He has an unspectacular 6.69 ERA in his last 37.2 innings spanning seven starts, but he carries a respectable 3.25 road ERA into this matchup. He also owns a 2.64 ERA in eight day-game starts this year, and a 2:20 p.m. ET start time classifies as one in my book.


Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies, Game Total – Under 7 (+110), Marlins F5 +0.5 (-145)

Why: Just hand Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara the NL Cy Young award already. He is by far the most dominant pitcher in perhaps the NL and the AL as he continues to put up ridiculous numbers. He enters this contest with three complete games, a 1.88 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 141 strikeouts over 158.1 innings (22 starts). He is one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball and the under tends to cash more often than not when he is on the bump.

Unfortunately Alcantara plays for the Marlins, making runs tough to come by when he is on the bump. He has pitched less than five innings only once this season, and has logged seven or more innings in 14 of his last 16 starts. Over that span, he has only allowed three or more runs in two of those starts, both times to the New York Mets. in three appearances against the Phillies this season, Alcantara has held them to two runs while going six+ innings in each start.

I don’t think Miami can score much more than the two runs Alcantara might allow, so the under is a safe play here.


Baltimore Orioles, Moneyline (+135), Run Line +1.5 (-120), Game Total – Over 9 (-110)

Why: Everything is lining up for the Orioles to sweep the visiting Toronto Blue Jays and at plus odds like this, you just have to take them. The Blue Jays will trot out RHP José Berríos who sports a 5.19 ERA this season. Meanwhile, Baltimore will send RHP Dean Kremer and his 3.43 ERA to the mound.

Berríos has had a forgettable season so far but has put together somewhat decent starts over his last seven, sporting a 3.86 ERA in that span. However, he is coming off a five earned-run performance against the Minnesota Twins. Kremer’s splits aren’t noticeably different on the road and at home, but what does stand out is his .250 batting average against and 1.17 WHIP in six home starts.

The way the Orioles have been playing lately (7-3 in their last 10) and their success on the run line (73-36), it’s impossible not to place a few wagers on them. As for the game total, each of the first two games have gone over nine and I predict that trend to continue.


Houston Astros, Run Line -1.5 (-145)

Why: What is the number one rule in baseball betting? Do not fade Justin Verlander. He has a 15-3 record with a 1.73 ERA in 130 innings. He is also 7-0 with a 0.76 ERA over 47.2 innings in his last seven starts. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers are sending RHP Glenn Otto and his 5.31 ERA to go up against one of the best pitchers in the American League. This doesn’t take much thought, just add the Astros to a parlay and juice up those odds to get a nice payday.


The Props

Nolan Arenado – Over 0.5 Home Runs (TBD)

Why: Arenado and the Cardinals will go up against Rockies LHP Kyle Freeland. Despite just having two at-bats against him, his lone base hit was a double. I could see the right-handed power hitter taking the lefty deep at the ballpark he called home for several years prior to his stint in St. Louis.

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