Photo courtesy of Marcio Jose Sanchez | AP Photo
Today’s MLB slate of 13 games concludes the first week of ‘Bets with Seb’ and we had our ups and downs, but walked away with a profit in the end. Today’s action begins with the Miami Marlins traveling to Chicago to take on the Cubs at 2:20 p.m. ET. The night cap features a pair of games at 10:10 p.m. ET as the San Diego Padres head to Chavez Ravine to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Los Angeles Angels take on the red-hot Seattle Mariners.
We made some profits, now let’s have some fun with them. There aren’t many appealing matchups on the slate, so this will be a high-risk, high-reward handicap.
Aug. 4 Results: 10-5, +1 for calling the Vladdy home run
Note: Odds via DraftKings.
7:05 p.m. ET Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
Probable pitchers: Nationals RHP Josiah Gray / Phillies RHP Kyle Gibson
There isn’t much to say as the Nationals open up at +175 road underdogs (rightfully so) and the Phillies are -205 favorites while the game total started at 8.5.
The Play: Nationals F5 +0.5 (+110)
Why: There isn’t much to say about the Nationals, but they can be a surprise at times. Gray has been solid on the road this season, owning a 5-0 record with a 2.45 ERA in 51.1 innings. Washington has also scored 4.25 runs per game over its last four, even without Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Meanwhile, Gibson hasn’t done well at home, posting a 4.50 ERA in 62 innings. Gibson has also allowed 14 earned runs in his last 14.1 innings spanning three home starts.
8:05 p.m. ET Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers
Probable pitchers: White Sox RHP Dylan Cease / Rangers RHP Glenn Otto
The White Sox are a disappointment, but they did something right with Cease. So, Happy Dylan Cease Day to those who celebrate. The White Sox open as -175 road favorites and the Rangers are +150 home underdogs while the game total opens at eight runs.
The Play: White Sox -1.5 (+100)
Why: In Cease we trust. He is pitching really well lately; I guess he just has something to say about his All-Star snub. The righty has a 2.01 ERA on the season and he has been even better over his last seven, pitching to a 0.84 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP while winning six of those decisions.
The White Sox don’t score often (4.30 per game, 17th overall) but they have a chance to score plenty against the Rangers and Otto, who has a 5.50 ERA.
The Prop: Cease – Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+135)
Why: This is simple. Cease has allowed one earned run or less in 13 of his last 14 starts, with the last crooked number going up on May 24.
8:15 p.m. ET New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals
Probable pitchers: Yankees LHP Nestor Cortes / Cardinals RHP Dakota Hudson
The Play: Cardinals Moneyline (+120), Game Total – Over 8.5 (-105)
Why: The Yankees are in a bit of a funk, going 5-5 over their last 10 games while the Cardinals are 7-3. Hudson has also been a solid pitcher at home, owning a 2.98 ERA in 51.1 innings. As a team, the Cardinals smash left handed pitching with a .269 average and .783 OPS. The Yankees could easily make it a close, high-scoring game, as they are first in the league with 5.3 runs per game.
The Prop: Nolan Arenado OR Paul Goldschmidt – Over 1.5 Total Bases (TBD)
Why: Either of these props will come out at plus odds, and it almost seems like a coin flip between the two. With lefty Cortes on the bump, expect these righties to hit the ball hard.
10:10 p.m. ET San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Probable pitchers: Padres LHP Sean Manaea / Dodgers RHP Tony Gonsolin
This should be a fun game. The new and improved Padres against the powerhouse Dodgers. Visiting San Diego is a +135 road dog and the Dodgers are -155 favorites with the game total at 8.5.
The Play: Dodgers -1.5 (+130), Game Total – Over 8.5 (-115)
Why: The Dodgers are the second best team on the run line, winning 64 of their 72 victories by two or more runs this season. The Dodgers have also won all five of their most recent games by two or more runs, including a four-game road sweep at San Francisco. These are two very good offenses going against each other, and I don’t think either pitcher will last very long.
The Prop: Mookie Betts – Over 1.5 Total Bases (TBD)
Why: Mookie has collected over 1.5 total bases in 10 of his last 16 games and three of his last four. Look for Mookie to cash the over again.
