• Fri. Jun 2nd, 2023

Bets with Seb: Aug. 3, 2022

BySebastian Moore

Aug 3, 2022
Shohei Ohtani throwing a pitch

Photo courtesy of Butch Dill | AP Photo

We have a full slate of MLB games today with some matinee matchups included on the card. The action is set to start at 12:10 p.m. ET as Yusei Kikuchi and the Toronto Blue Jays travel to Tampa Bay to take on LHP Jalen Beeks and the Rays. The night cap features the third of a four-game set between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants.

Aug. 2 Results: 5-6

Note: Odds via DraftKings.

1:05 p.m. ET Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees 

Probable pitchers: Mariners RHP Luis Castillo / Yankees RHP Gerrit Cole

The Mariners and Yankees are playing a rubber match in New York today, and both teams are sending out their ace pitchers to try and win the series. The Mariners opened as +155 road underdogs and the Yankees are -180 favorites while the game total is set at seven runs.

The Play: Mariners moneyline (+155), F5 +0.5

Why: Castillo, who is scheduled to make his Mariners debut after Seattle acquired him from the Cincinnati Reds for Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Levi Stoudt and Andrew Moore, wants his tenure to start off on the right foot. He also dominated the Yankees in a previous outing as a member of the Reds on July 14, where he allowed two hits and one earned run with four walks and eight strikeouts across seven innings. I think he can match Cole, who is entering play with a 3.30 ERA.

The Prop: Castillo – Over 18.5 outs recorded

Why: Castillo has a 2.87 ERA in 14 appearances with 90 strikeouts and has pitched seven innings in each of his last four starts. If the strikeout prop comes in at 6.5, I would consider taking the over.

4:05 p.m. ET New York Mets at Washington Nationals

Probable pitchers: Mets RHP Chris Bassitt / Nationals RHP Aníbal Sánchez

The Mets are sending Bassitt to finish off whatever is left of the Nationals after Washington traded Juan Soto and Josh Bell to the San Diego Padres in a blockbuster deal. This is good for the Mets, who enter play as -250 favorites, while the Nationals are +210 home underdogs. The game total opened at nine runs.

The Play: Mets -1.5 (-155), under nine (+100)

Why: I got burned on this play yesterday because I forgot the Mets offense goes missing whenever Jacob deGrom is on the mound. Despite the juiced spread, New York should have no problem handling Sánchez who has a 7.47 ERA in three starts, all of which resulted in losses. The Mets are also second in the NL in runs per game (4.73), while the Nationals are 27th with a 3.81 mark.

The Prop: Mets F5 TT over 2.5 (-120)

Why: After scoring only a single run in yesterday’s 5-1 loss, the Mets’ bats need to rebound and demolish a depleted team. Sánchez has allowed three or more runs in the first five innings in all three of his starts this season so take the over at this nice price.

6:40 p.m. ET Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins

Probable pitchers: Reds LHP Mike Minor / Marlins RHP Sandy Alcántara

Happy Sandy Alcántara Day to everyone who celebrates, as the future NL Cy Young winner takes the mound against the Reds and a less than desirable Mike Minor. Miami is opening as a heavy -200 home favorite and the Reds are +180 underdogs. The game total is set at seven runs with juice toward the under.

The Play: Game total under seven (-120)

Why: There are a lot of things that can go wrong by taking a moneyline on a team that just traded away some of its key bullpen pieces at the deadline, so I am sticking to the game total here. Alcántara has been masterful this season. He owns a 1.99 ERA in 21 starts and is an absolute workhorse on the mound, leading the league in innings (149.1). The Mets seem to be the only team that has figured him out, but thankfully the Reds are not the New York-based club. I am sticking with the under because I know Cincinatti can’t score off Alcántara in a hitter-friendly park, and I don’t trust Miami’s offense to score five or six runs on their own, even with Minor (6.31 ERA) on the mound. If you want to take a risk, take the -1.5 spread on Miami at +110.

The Prop: Alcántara over 20.5 outs recorded

Why: Alcántara hasn’t hit the over on this mark in his past two games, but prior to those outings he had gone over 20.5 outs recorded in 13 consecutive games. Look for Alcántara to prove why he should be the NL Cy Young and work deep into this game to give his team the best chance to win.

9:38 p.m. ET Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels

Probable pitchers: Athletics RHP James Kaprielian / Angels RHP Shohei Ohtani

The Prop: Ohtani – Over 8.5 strikeouts

Why: There are no game lines available at the time this article was written, although two starters have seemingly been confirmed, so I will just stick to a lock on Ohtani’s strikeout prop. I predict the Angels to open as heavy home favorites, and I am just not comfortable betting on this team.

In this player prop, we are just focusing on the two-way talent’s insane strikeout numbers. Over his last seven games, he has 74 in just 45 innings. On the season, he sports an outstanding 13.16 strikeout per nine rate and most impressively, he has six consecutive double-digit strikeout performances. My play here is to go to the “at least” strikeout prop and place a unit on each total starting at nine strikeouts all the way up to 12 or 13. If he reaches double digits again, you should walk away with a decent profit.

Extra Player Prop

Zack Wheeler – Over 6.5 strikeouts

The righty has 122 strikeouts in 113.2 innings this season and is going up against the Atlanta Braves – a team that ranks 14th in the National League in strikeouts per nine innings (9.26).