• Tue. Mar 28th, 2023

Bets with Seb: Aug. 2, 2022

BySebastian Moore

Aug 2, 2022
Logan Gilbert pitching with Mariners

We have a full slate of MLB today that features 15 games between all 30 ball clubs, including a doubleheader between the San Diego Padres and the Colorado Rockies which starts at 4:10 p.m. ET. The slate ends with the continuation of the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants rivalry series with first pitch scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET.

With the trade deadline looming, check any and all lineups before placing a bet because you never know who might be switching uniforms.

Aug. 1 Results: 16-12-2

Note: Odds via DraftKings.

4:10 p.m. ET Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, GM 1

Probable pitchers: Rockies RHP Jose Urena / San Diego Padres TBD

Padres RHP Yu Darvish is expected to start one game of tomorrow’s doubleheader, but the Padres have not made an official announcement. If Darvish is pitching against Urena in Game 1, there is only one possible play to take. Especially after the Padres made a blockbuster trade by acquiring LHP Josh Hader from the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Play: Padres -1.5

Why: 37 of the Padres’ 57 victories this season (excluding last night’s game) have come by two or more runs. They are also 17th in the league in average runs per game with a 4.36 mark, but that number drops to 3.67 (28th) when they play at home. However, Urena has struggled in his past two outings, allowing a combined 12 earned runs on 14 hits across 8.1 innings to the Los Angeles Dodgers and Brewers. If Darvish is on the bump, I think the spread can cash with ease.

The Prop: Manny Machado – Over 0.5 hits

Why: This isn’t an exciting play, but it’s an almost guaranteed lock. Machado owns a .294 average with a .877 OPS, both of which are team-best marks while also owning a har- hit percentage in the 91st percentile. Despite Machado batting only .185 over his last seven games, this looks like a prime opportunity for the $300 million dollar man to break out of his slump and cash the hit prop.

7:05 p.m. ET New York Mets at Washington Nationals

Probable starters: Mets RHP Jacob deGrom / Nationals RHP Cory Abbott

Baseball fans have been anticipating this moment for over a year: deGrom is pitching on a major league mound. With that said, the Mets opened as a -285 favorite while the Nationals are a +240 underdog.

The Play: Mets -1.5 (-170)

Why: I am not a fan of the juiced run line price, but the Mets have a good shot at a repeat performance coming off a 7-3 victory over the Nationals in the series opener. This time the Mets will send the best pitcher in baseball (when healthy) to go against Abbott, an opener with a 2.25 ERA in four innings this season.

The Prop: deGrom – under 7.5 strikeouts.

Why: There are no available player prop lines yet but deGrom owns a 10.7 strikeout per nine rate across his eight-year career, so I am assuming the K props will be juiced up a bit. I like the under because deGrom tossed 67 pitches in his final rehab assignment so he may be on some kind of innings or pitches limit for his first trip to the hill in over a year. The Nationals also don’t strike out often, ranking second in the league with a 7.21 average.

7:05 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees

Probable starters: Mariners RHP Logan Gilbert / Yankees RHP Jameson Taillon

The Yankees got to Marco Gonzales early and often last night, scoring six runs in just 5.1 innings. In the second game of this series, the Yankees opened as a heavy -165 home favorite and the Mariners are +140 road underdogs while the game total was set at 8.5. 

The Play: Mariners F5, full game moneyline (+140)

Why: Happy Logan Gilbert Day. This is one of the Mariners prized young pitchers and he has shown his potential this season. He is 10-4 on the year with a 2.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 118 strikeouts in 123 innings. He has fallen back to earth recently, pitching to a 3.83 ERA in his last seven starts, but the offense has helped him pick up three wins in that span. I also trust Gilbert much more than Taillon. The Yankee righty is 10-2 on the year with a 3.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 92 strikeouts in 109 innings, but he has a 5.80 ERA in his last seven games.

The Yankees can score runs – they rank first in MLB with a 5.35 mark this season – but I think the Mariners can squeeze out a victory against Taillon.

The Prop: Kyle Lewis – Over 0.5 hits

Why: While the injury to All-Star and Home Run Derby runner-up Julio Rodriguez (maybe future AL Rookie of the Year?) is devastating, it has presented Kyle Lewis with a new opportunity to prove his worth in the outfield. He blasted a solo home run in four at-bats in the series opener, and Lewis should have a good shot at recording his third hit in four games against Taillon.

7:05 p.m. ET Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

Probable starters: Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes / Pirates RHP Bryse Wilson

The Brewers are sending NL Cy Young candidate Burnes to toe the rubber against a Pirates team that may be even weaker as the Trade Deadline approaches game time. The Brewers opened as -255 road favorites and the Pirates are +215 home underdogs with the run total starting at 7.5.

The Play: Brewers -1.5 (-145)

Why: Burnes has been his same old self this season, pitching to the tune of a 2.31 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with 160 strikeouts in 124.2 innings. He has been even better over his last seven games with a 4-0 record, 1.96 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 60 strikeouts while allowing just 26 hits in 46 innings. Burnes has also found success against a weak Pirates lineup this season. In two games against Pittsburgh, Burnes is 2-0 with a 2.07 ERA and 15 strikeouts while allowing just five hits in 13 innings.

The Prop: Burnes – Over 7.5 strikeouts

Why: The Burnes K prop seems like an obvious choice in this game. He had three double-digit punchout outings in July and has hit the over in seven of his last nine games. His 160 strikeouts also place him third in the MLB standings behind New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole (162) and Chicago White Sox All-Star Dylan Cease (161).

7:10 p.m. ET Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians

Probable starters: Diamondbacks RHP Zac Gallen / Guardians RHP Triston McKenzie

This is arguably one of the better looking pitching matchups on today’s MLB slate. The Guardians opened as -135 home favorites and the Diamondbacks are +115 road dogs, while the run line starts at eight.

The Play: Game total – Under 8 (-115)

Why: This game screams the under to me. McKenzie has found his groove recently, despite a four run effort against the Boston Red Sox in his last start. However, McKenzie has been incredibly good at home this season where he owns a 2.89 ERA in 37.1 innings. He also hasn’t allowed an earned run in back-to-back home starts, spanning 15 innings against the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers.

Meanwhile, Gallen has had a fine season up to this point, owning a 3.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with 101 strikeouts in 105.2 innings. He has allowed five runs in his last 12.2 road innings, but one of those outings was at Coors Field in Colorado.

The Prop: McKenzie – Over 5.5 strikeouts

Why: McKenzie isn’t a high strikeout pitcher, but he can get plenty of swings and misses. He is in the 51st percentile in whiff percentage and 46th in chase rate, but the Diamondbacks are 18th by averaging 8.50 strikeouts per game. He registered a season-high 12 strikeouts against Detroit on July 14, and he has hit the over in four of his last six outings.